Landbay Results – 12 Month

12 Month Results

The first year of investing through Landbay is up, and the results are as follows –

Expected ROI 3.68%
Actual ROI 3.28%

As you can see the the ‘expected ROI’ has dropped marginally. This is because most of the investment is in a fixed rate of 3.69% however this fund was closed a few months ago, with the the new fixed rate fund offering 3.49%, as the returns are reinvested in the new lower rate fund this is causing a downward pressure on returns.

What is less easy to explain is the increased deficit between ‘expected’ and ‘actual ROI’. It is true February is a shorter month which would have a marginal difference on the run rate of ROI at this time of year. The other factor that could be causing the gap to widen is a significant drop in demand. Now considering Landbay reserve the right to queue funds in times of exceptional demand for up to 6 weeks, something i witnessed early on in this fund (informed by a notification on the fund at the time) this is not something i have witnessed since. Along with this the time that monthly returns are queued for reinvestment seems to be increasing, sometimes as long as 2 weeks. This could be indicating a significant drop in demand for new investment.

Now the length of the queue for reinvestment should not have a negative impact on returns as Landbay is one of the few platforms that accrue returns on queued investments. Looking at the wider situation, Landbay is heavily London centric (55.01% Greater London) and average London house prices have fallen back 1.5 – 2% over the last 12 – 18 months , with predictions for 2018 seeing a further drop. This will no doubt cause some pressure on the Landbay portfolio but still does not fully explain the deficit. Fund roll up (first month not being a complete month) from my own strategy could also play a part, although this was not evident in the 6 month review. I have contacted Landbay for further clarification on the cause of the drop in return and will repot back as soon as i have a response.

As mentioned previously, the latest fixed rate fund is now at a lower 3.49%, this fund is also now based on 25 year mortgages (as of January 2018) rather than previously 10 year mortgages. This is not necessarily a problem as Landbay do offer sell out early options (dependant on a buyer being available) but it does indicate Landbay seem to be seeking increased stability.

As for Landbay‘s future within my portfolio, February 2018 has been the first month i have experienced an issue with the expected rate of return, of course i will look in to this further before drawing a definitive judgement. It has always been difficult to get exited by Landbay’s rate of returns (current 3% inflation) with not much more than 0.5% annual return in real terms. That said i still view Landbay as a foundation fund to a diversified portfolio, but it’s meagre returns are restricting me to keep Landbay as a  relatively minor player in the overall portfolio. One big plus for me staying with Landbay beyond the returns, is it’s substantial wealth of research on the UK property market, which has been invaluable in constructing pieces for this blog. Landbay’s place is safe in my portfolio for the time being.

Collateral UK announces administration.

The UK based P2P lender Collateral UK announced today (28/02/2018) it has formally entered administration. The platform was taken offline on Monday 26th of February 2018 with nothing more than a ‘server upgrade’ landing page in it’s place. As speculation grew on forums over the next few days, from the plausible to out right ridiculous, as to the cause of this suspension in trading, a letter from the administrator was finally released late this evening.

The administrators letter cites the reason for the administration as ‘ The Company was operating in the belief that it was authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under interim permission. It has transpired that this is not the case and consequently the Company has ceased lending ‘.

It is still very early stages in proceedings but it would appear invested capital will be secured and wound down in an orderly manner. However it is yet been clarified what will happen to cash on account, what will happen to investments not yet drawn down, what will happen to this months interest due tomorrow morning and if or when the platform will go back online. If the platform does not go back live, many investors maybe left scratching their heads in obtaining exact and up to date figures of what they have on the platform. This could cause difficulties with capital claims or tax filling.

Emotions are still raw at this time and it would unwise to speculate further on how this situation came about in the first place. Undoubtedly more will be revealed over the coming days and i will update accordingly. However some comfort should be taken from the fact this is by no means the worst case scenario, if played out as purported investor losses should be minimal if any.

This is exactly why all investments carry risk.